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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Saturday 2020-01-04 · 16:35 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

BUF
46.3%
HOU
53.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to HOU: Deshaun Watson (HOU) +0.124 vs Josh Allen (BUF) -0.021 EPA/dropback (HOU starting Deshaun Watson in place of A.J. McCarron; BUF starting Josh Allen in place of Matt Barkley)
  • HOU defense: +0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.152 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • BUF offense: -0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 22
–
HOU 23
Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

BUF

Shaq Lawson DE Questionable Hamstring
Ty Nsekhe T Questionable Ankle
Andre Roberts WR Questionable Foot
Levi Wallace CB Questionable Ankle

HOU

Jahleel Addae S Questionable Achilles
Jordan Akins TE Questionable Hamstring
Will Fuller WR Questionable Groin
Johnathan Joseph CB Questionable Hamstring
Bradley Roby CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 19
–
HOU 22

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:51 TD BUF (11:51) (Shotgun) 15-J.Brown pass short left to 17-J.Allen for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – HOU 0
  • Q2 10:52 FG BUF (10:52) 4-S.Hauschka 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. BUF 10 – HOU 0
  • Q2 00:09 FG BUF (:09) 4-S.Hauschka 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. BUF 13 – HOU 0
  • Q3 06:08 FG BUF (6:08) 4-S.Hauschka 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. BUF 16 – HOU 0
  • Q3 01:41 TD HOU (1:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson right end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. BUF 16 – HOU 6
  • Q4 11:00 FG HOU (11:00) 7-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. BUF 16 – HOU 11
  • Q4 04:42 TD HOU (4:42) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 23-C.Hyde for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – HOU 17
  • Q4 00:10 FG BUF (:10) 4-S.Hauschka 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. BUF 19 – HOU 19
  • Q5 03:23 FG HOU (3:23) 7-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. BUF 19 – HOU 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 13 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 52%

    (7:09) 9-B.Anger punts 32 yards to BUF 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts. Punt Hangtime: 4.38s

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 13 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:09) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to HOU 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-D.Carter to HOU 36 for 11 yards (33-S.Neal, 57-L.Alexander). Punt Hangtime: 5.13s

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 42%

    (:39) 9-B.Anger punts 37 yards to BUF 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts. Punt Hangtime: 4.41s

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%

    (10:52) 4-S.Hauschka 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:57) 9-B.Anger punts 56 yards to BUF 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-35-K.Crossen.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 9 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 90%

    (:09) 4-S.Hauschka 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:36) 9-B.Anger punts 53 yards to BUF 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 36 for 8 yards (33-A.Moore; 44-C.Gillaspia). Punt Hangtime: 4.91s

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 57%

    (11:27) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Punt Hangtime: 4.13s

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 16 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 91%

    (6:08) 4-S.Hauschka 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 88%

    (11:00) 7-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (9:36) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to HOU 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 14-D.Carter. Punt Hangtime: 4.25s

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 79%

    (1:21) 4-D.Watson up the middle to BUF 30 for no gain (98-S.Lotulelei).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 81%

    (:10) 4-S.Hauschka 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.