Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 81

Houston Texans 0 – Buffalo Bills 13

(13:36) 9-B.Anger punts 53 yards to BUF 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 36 for 8 yards (33-A.Moore; 44-C.Gillaspia). Punt Hangtime: 4.91s

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 81, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model