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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 69

Buffalo Bills 16 – Houston Texans 11

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to HOU 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 14-D.Carter. Punt Hangtime: 4.25s

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.59 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model