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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 30

Houston Texans 19 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(1:21) 4-D.Watson up the middle to BUF 30 for no gain (98-S.Lotulelei).

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +0.93 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.27 EP