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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 46

Houston Texans 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(:39) 9-B.Anger punts 37 yards to BUF 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts. Punt Hangtime: 4.41s

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.62 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 13, worth +0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model