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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 62

New Orleans Saints 3 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(13:15) 6-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to MIN 23, Center-49-Z.Wood. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 30 for 7 yards (30-R.Ortiz).

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.58 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 62, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model