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Minnesota Vikings

10-6 HC Mike Zimmer
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New Orleans Saints

13-3 HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2020-01-05 · 13:05 ET Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

MIN
35.9%
NO
64.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.132 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.050 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.009 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • MIN offense: -0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Drew Brees (NO) +0.232 vs Kirk Cousins (MIN) +0.203 EPA/dropback (MIN starting Kirk Cousins in place of Sean Mannion)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIN 23 16–30
–
NO 27 20–34
Projected margin: NO by 4 Projected total: 50

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 18

MIN

Mackensie Alexander CB Out Knee
Mike Hughes CB Out Neck
Ifeadi Odenigbo DE Questionable Hamstring

NO

Eli Apple CB Out Ankle
Zach Line RB Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 26
–
NO 20

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:56 FG NO (9:56) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. MIN 0 – NO 3
  • Q1 04:09 FG MIN (4:09) 5-D.Bailey 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. MIN 3 – NO 3
  • Q2 09:23 TD NO (9:23) 41-A.Kamara right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 3 – NO 9
  • Q2 02:58 FG MIN (2:58) 5-D.Bailey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. MIN 6 – NO 10
  • Q2 00:27 TD MIN (:27) 33-D.Cook right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 12 – NO 10
  • Q3 03:30 TD MIN (3:30) 33-D.Cook right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 19 – NO 10
  • Q4 10:37 TD NO (10:37) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 7-T.Hill for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 20, YAC 0 MIN 20 – NO 16
  • Q4 00:07 FG NO (:07) 3-W.Lutz 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. MIN 20 – NO 20
  • Q5 10:45 TD MIN (10:45) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 82-K.Rudolph for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 26 – NO 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (9:56) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 7 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 86%

    (4:09) 5-D.Bailey 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:45) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to MIN 36, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 14 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (15:00) 2-B.Colquitt punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-58-A.Cutting, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:15) 6-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to MIN 23, Center-49-Z.Wood. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 30 for 7 yards (30-R.Ortiz).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (11:43) 2-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to NO 13, Center-58-A.Cutting. 11-D.Harris to NO 30 for 17 yards (30-C.Ham).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (2:58) 5-D.Bailey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NO 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:48) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to MIN 12, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (8:48) 2-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to NO 34, Center-58-A.Cutting. 11-D.Harris to MIN 43 for 23 yards (58-A.Cutting). PENALTY on NO-48-J.Gray, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at NO 34.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NO 4th & 11 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:08) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to MIN 36, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NO 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:50) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to MIN 24, Center-49-Z.Wood. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 34 for 10 yards (7-T.Hill).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (15:00) 2-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to NO 15, Center-58-A.Cutting, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:01) 2-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to NO 12, Center-58-A.Cutting. 11-D.Harris to NO 29 for 17 yards (83-T.Conklin; 34-A.Sendejo).

    See the full breakdown →