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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 3

Minnesota Vikings 3 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 5-D.Bailey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.66 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 3, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP