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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 80

Minnesota Vikings 13 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 2-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to NO 34, Center-58-A.Cutting. 11-D.Harris to MIN 43 for 23 yards (58-A.Cutting). PENALTY on NO-48-J.Gray, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at NO 34.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.69 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 80, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 37, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP