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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 82

New Orleans Saints 10 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to MIN 36, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.42 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 82, worth -4.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 40, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model