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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 61

Minnesota Vikings 20 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(7:01) 2-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to NO 12, Center-58-A.Cutting. 11-D.Harris to NO 29 for 17 yards (83-T.Conklin; 34-A.Sendejo).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.42 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 61, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 20, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model