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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 25

Minnesota Vikings 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 5-D.Bailey 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.65 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 35, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model