Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 84

New Orleans Saints 3 – Minnesota Vikings 3

(2:45) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to MIN 36, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.14 EP
53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 84, worth -4.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model