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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 57

Minnesota Vikings 3 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 2-B.Colquitt punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-58-A.Cutting, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.84 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 57, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 17, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model