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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 61

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(13:57) 1-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to SEA 15, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.94 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 61, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 20, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model