Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to SEA: Carson Wentz (PHI) -0.060 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.134 EPA/dropback
- PHI defense: -0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- SEA offense: -0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- Wind 17 mph
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 18
SEA
PHI
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 01:34 FG SEA (1:34) 5-J.Myers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – PHI 0
- Q2 02:58 FG PHI (2:58) 4-J.Elliott 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. SEA 3 – PHI 3
- Q2 01:11 TD SEA (1:11) 24-M.Lynch left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – PHI 3
- Q3 10:39 FG PHI (10:39) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. SEA 10 – PHI 6
- Q3 08:55 TD SEA (8:55) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-DK.Metcalf for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 16 – PHI 6
- Q3 02:53 FG PHI (2:53) 4-J.Elliott 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. SEA 17 – PHI 9
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(13:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to PHI 22, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.
-
Q1 PHI 4th & 8 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(12:34) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to SEA 31, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 83-D.Moore. PENALTY on PHI-39-C.James, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 31.
-
Q1 SEA 4th & 9 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%
(9:49) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (75-V.Curry), Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(6:29) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to SEA 19, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-D.Moore to SEA 24 for 5 yards (57-T.Edwards).
-
Q1 SEA 4th & 2 at the 30Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 71%
(1:34) 5-J.Myers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q2 PHI 4th & 14 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(13:57) 1-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to SEA 15, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.
-
Q2 SEA 4th & 19 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 16%
(8:55) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to PHI 8, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-57-C.Barton.
-
Q2 PHI 4th & 12 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 76%
(2:58) 4-J.Elliott 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
-
Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%
(10:39) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
-
Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 89%
(2:53) 4-J.Elliott 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
-
Q4 SEA 4th & 15 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 24%
(12:21) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to PHI 12, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.
-
Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 24Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 83%
(6:24) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCown pass incomplete short left to 26-M.Sanders.
-
Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(5:03) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to PHI 31, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.
-
Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 10 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCown sacked at SEA 11 for -1 yards (90-J.Clowney).