4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 19 at the 52

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to PHI 8, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-57-C.Barton.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.75 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 52, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -2.05 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model