4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 8

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 8, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model