Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 76

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to SEA 31, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 83-D.Moore. PENALTY on PHI-39-C.James, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 31.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +2.06 EP
61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 76, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model