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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 20

Philadelphia Eagles 6 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 4-J.Elliott 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.16 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 20, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model