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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 48

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 9

What Actually Happened

(12:21) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to PHI 12, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.43 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 48, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.71 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model