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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 10

Philadelphia Eagles 9 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCown sacked at SEA 11 for -1 yards (90-J.Clowney).

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.59 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 10, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP