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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 64

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to SEA 19, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-D.Moore to SEA 24 for 5 yards (57-T.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.47 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 64, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 22, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model