4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 30

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(1:34) 5-J.Myers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.05 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP