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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 78

Tennessee Titans 7 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to NE 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu Sr..

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.78 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 78, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.18 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 35, worth -2.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP