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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Saturday 2020-01-04 · 20:15 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 4.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

TEN
56.0%
NE
44.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: +0.181 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NE offense: -0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Ryan Tannehill (TEN): +0.133 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NE defense: -0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 23
–
NE 21
Projected margin: TEN by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

TEN

Adam Humphries WR Out Ankle
Dane Cruikshank S Questionable Illness
Cody Hollister WR Questionable Ankle
Kalif Raymond WR Questionable Concussion

NE

Ja'Whaun Bentley LB Questionable Knee
Terrence Brooks S Questionable Groin
Jamie Collins LB Questionable Shoulder
Julian Edelman WR Questionable Knee
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Groin
Jason McCourty CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 20
–
NE 13

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:41 FG NE (12:41) 2-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. TEN 0 – NE 3
  • Q1 05:44 TD TEN (5:44) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 86-A.Firkser for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – NE 3
  • Q2 15:00 TD NE (15:00) 11-J.Edelman right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – NE 9
  • Q2 02:18 FG NE (2:18) 2-N.Folk 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. TEN 7 – NE 13
  • Q2 00:38 TD TEN (:38) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – NE 13
  • Q4 00:15 TD TEN (:15) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 14-M.Sanu Sr. INTERCEPTED by 26-L.Ryan (35-T.Brock) at NE 9. 26-L.Ryan for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 20 – NE 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 92%

    (12:41) 2-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (13:29) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to NE 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu Sr..

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.83 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 23%

    (9:20) 7-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to TEN 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-R.Davis.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (8:13) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to NE 30, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-M.Sanu Sr. to TEN 47 for 23 yards (44-K.Correa; 31-K.Byard).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (2:18) 2-N.Folk 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 25%

    (:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right (25-A.Jackson).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:30) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to NE 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu Sr..

  • Q3 NE 4th & 19 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (8:09) 7-J.Bailey punts 29 yards to TEN 43, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 11 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 46%

    (5:41) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to NE 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-59-W.Woodyard.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:40) 7-J.Bailey punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 36%

    (12:52) 7-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 41 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 52%

    (4:51) 6-B.Kern punts 30 yards to NE 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (3:17) 7-J.Bailey punts 50 yards to TEN 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-R.Davis.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:25) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to NE 1, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-29-D.Cruikshank.