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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 83

Tennessee Titans 7 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(8:13) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to NE 30, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-M.Sanu Sr. to TEN 47 for 23 yards (44-K.Correa; 31-K.Byard).

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.89 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 83, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.25 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 41, worth -2.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP