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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 52

New England Patriots 13 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right (25-A.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.71 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 52, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 25% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model