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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 57

Tennessee Titans 14 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to NE 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu Sr..

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.76 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 57, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model