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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 19 at the 72

New England Patriots 13 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 7-J.Bailey punts 29 yards to TEN 43, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.71 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model