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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 43

Tennessee Titans 14 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to NE 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-59-W.Woodyard.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.84 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model