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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 61

New England Patriots 13 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 7-J.Bailey punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.38 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model