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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 47

New England Patriots 13 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 7-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.94 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP