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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 63

New England Patriots 13 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(3:17) 7-J.Bailey punts 50 yards to TEN 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-R.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.43 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 63, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model