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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 59

Tennessee Titans 14 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(:25) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to NE 1, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-29-D.Cruikshank.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.42 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 59, worth -1.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model