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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 5

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett to GB 1 for 4 yards (31-A.Amos; 23-J.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO +3.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.79 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model