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Seattle Seahawks

11-5 HC Pete Carroll
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Green Bay Packers

13-3 HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2020-01-12 · 18:40 ET Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌨 Snow Spread 4.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

SEA
30.5%
GB
69.5%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • SEA defense: -0.013 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • GB on 7 more days rest than SEA
  • GB defense: -0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • GB offense: -0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • SEA offense: -0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (SEA): +0.126 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

SEA 22 15–29
–
GB 25 18–32
Projected margin: GB by 3 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 19

SEA

Mike Iupati G Doubtful Neck
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Neck
Marquise Blair S Questionable Ankle
Duane Brown T Questionable Knee
George Fant T Questionable Groin
Quinton Jefferson DT Questionable Ankle

GB

Tyler Lancaster DT Questionable Illness
Dan Vitale RB Questionable Knee
Dexter Williams RB Questionable Illness
Kenny Clark DT Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 23
–
GB 28

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:42 TD GB (10:42) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – GB 6
  • Q1 00:33 FG SEA (:33) 5-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – GB 7
  • Q2 09:55 TD GB (9:55) 33-A.Jones left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 3 – GB 13
  • Q2 01:33 TD GB (1:33) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 3 – GB 20
  • Q3 09:49 TD SEA (9:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-M.Lynch up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – GB 21
  • Q3 07:21 TD GB (7:21) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 10 – GB 27
  • Q3 00:47 TD SEA (:47) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-M.Adams]. SEA 16 – GB 28
  • Q4 09:37 TD SEA (9:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-M.Lynch left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 23 – GB 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to GB 5, Center-69-T.Ott. 32-T.Ervin to GB 11 for 6 yards (18-J.Brown).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 GB 4th & 9 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:06) 6-J.Scott punts 55 yards to SEA 33, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (4:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to GB 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (2:18) 6-J.Scott punts 46 yards to SEA 32, Center-43-H.Bradley. 83-D.Moore to SEA 42 for 10 yards (42-O.Burks).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 SEA 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 83%

    (:33) 5-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 71%

    (5:48) 5-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (10:13) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett to GB 1 for 4 yards (31-A.Amos; 23-J.Alexander).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (14:12) 6-J.Scott punts 47 yards to SEA 21, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-43-H.Bradley.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 17 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 30%

    (5:04) 6-J.Scott punts 25 yards to SEA 23, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SEA 4th & 11 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:41) 4-M.Dickson punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →