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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 48

Green Bay Packers 28 – Seattle Seahawks 23

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 6-J.Scott punts 25 yards to SEA 23, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.53 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -1.11 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model