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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 58

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to GB 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.57 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP