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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 26

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(:33) 5-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.60 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT +0.42 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model