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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 31

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(5:57) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.75 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model