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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Saturday 2020-01-11 · 20:15 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

TEN
29.9%
BAL
70.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: +0.191 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.218 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.228 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to BAL: Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.334 vs Ryan Tannehill (TEN) +0.187 EPA/dropback (BAL starting Lamar Jackson in place of Robert Griffin)
  • BAL on 6 more days rest than TEN

Predicted Final Score

TEN 19
–
BAL 26
Projected margin: BAL by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

TEN

Jayon Brown LB Out Shoulder
Adam Humphries WR Out Ankle
Cody Hollister WR Questionable Ankle

BAL

Mark Andrews TE Questionable Ankle
Mark Ingram RB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 28
–
BAL 12

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:42 TD TEN (3:42) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 81-J.Smith for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TEN 6 – BAL 0
  • Q2 14:53 TD TEN (14:53) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 14-K.Raymond for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – BAL 0
  • Q2 05:57 FG BAL (5:57) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. TEN 14 – BAL 3
  • Q2 00:03 FG BAL (:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. TEN 14 – BAL 6
  • Q3 06:59 TD TEN (6:59) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry pass short middle to 84-C.Davis for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Direct snap TEN 20 – BAL 6
  • Q3 04:20 TD TEN (4:20) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 27 – BAL 6
  • Q4 11:09 TD BAL (11:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 81-H.Hurst for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 28 – BAL 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 12 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:54) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback. PENALTY on TEN-29-D.Cruikshank, Illegal Touch Kick, 0 yards, enforced at BAL 20. Penalty causes Touchback

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right guard to BAL 45 for no gain (51-D.Long).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:40) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to TEN 28, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 14 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:22) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback. PENALTY on BAL-31-B.Trawick, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 12 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 71%

    (5:57) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 23%

    (2:40) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback. PENALTY on BAL-16-D.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 20. Penalty was 5 yards, enforced from the BAL 10 yard line.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 91%

    (10:01) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to TEN 18 for no gain (58-H.Landry).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 37%

    (14:56) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 32 yards to BAL 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (6:33) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 16 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 93%

    (4:31) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 89-M.Andrews (29-D.Cruikshank).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 79 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:53) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to BAL 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 11 at the 21 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 88%

    (:55) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 80-M.Boykin.