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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 50

Tennessee Titans 14 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(2:40) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback. PENALTY on BAL-16-D.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 20. Penalty was 5 yards, enforced from the BAL 10 yard line.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.81 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 50, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model