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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 55

Tennessee Titans 28 – Baltimore Ravens 12

What Actually Happened

(6:33) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.43 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 55, worth -2.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP