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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 16

Baltimore Ravens 12 – Tennessee Titans 28

What Actually Happened

(4:31) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 89-M.Andrews (29-D.Cruikshank).

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.68 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model