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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 72

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(13:40) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to TEN 28, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.18 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model