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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:13) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to GB 25, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP