Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- SF offense: +0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- GB offense: +0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- Aaron Rodgers (GB): +0.111 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 20
GB
SF
No players on the report.
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:01 TD SF (6:01) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left tackle for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – SF 6
- Q2 15:00 FG SF (15:00) 9-R.Gould 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. GB 0 – SF 10
- Q2 09:17 TD SF (9:17) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – SF 16
- Q2 02:00 FG SF (2:00) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. GB 0 – SF 20
- Q2 00:50 TD SF (:50) 31-R.Mostert up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – SF 26
- Q3 08:49 TD GB (8:49) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 33-A.Jones for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 13. 13-yac GB 6 – SF 27
- Q3 04:56 TD SF (4:56) 31-R.Mostert left end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – SF 33
- Q4 14:45 TD GB (14:45) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – SF 34
- Q4 08:21 TD GB (8:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-J.Sternberger for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 19 – SF 34
- Q4 03:36 FG SF (3:36) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. GB 20 – SF 37
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EPp(convert) 73%
(13:13) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to GB 25, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.
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Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 50Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EPp(convert) 70% p(FG) 28%
(9:40) 6-J.Scott punts 39 yards to SF 11, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..
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Q1 GB 4th & 20 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(2:31) 6-J.Scott punts 48 yards to SF 23, Center-43-H.Bradley. 13-R.James Jr. ran ob at SF 49 for 26 yards (37-J.Jackson).
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Q2 SF 4th & 14 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 64%
(15:00) 9-R.Gould 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EPp(convert) 55% p(FG) 97%
(2:00) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(:14) 6-J.Scott punts 62 yards to SF 12, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-25-W.Redmond.
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Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 47Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59% p(FG) 35%
(:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 13-A.Lazard to SF 43 for 4 yards (24-K.Williams). SF-24-K.Williams was injured during the play. Caught at SF 43. 0-yac
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Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 43%
(11:32) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to GB 8, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.
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Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 24 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 86%
(3:36) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q4 GB 4th & 13 at the 78 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(2:08) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams to GB 38 for 16 yards (24-K.Williams). Caught at GB 38. 0-yac