Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 74

Green Bay Packers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 27

(:14) 6-J.Scott punts 62 yards to SF 12, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-25-W.Redmond.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.24 EP
63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 74, worth -2.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model