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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 50

Green Bay Packers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:40) 6-J.Scott punts 39 yards to SF 11, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.50 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -1.75 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP